Spring 2026 was the second warmest in Spain since records began in 1961, according to the state meteorological agency, Aemet, and the summer is forecast to be hotter than normal, though possibly with more rain than usual in the Balearics.
A very warm spring
Between 1 March and 31 May, the average temperature on the mainland was 14.0°C, 1.6°C above the 1991–2020 average. Only spring 2023 was warmer.
- April was the warmest April on record, with temperatures in many areas almost 4°C above normal.
- May started cool but ended with an intense hot spell from the 19th, when temperatures across the mainland were more than 6°C above normal.
- The highest temperatures of the season were 40.5°C at Seville airport and 39.5°C at Córdoba airport on 31 May.
- Nineteen main weather stations recorded their warmest spring on record.
Dry on the mainland
Rainfall on the mainland was 134 mm, 75% of normal, making it the 14th driest spring since 1961. March was close to average, but April and May were dry. The Canary Islands, by contrast, had their wettest spring on record.
The summer outlook
Aemet’s seasonal forecast points to a high probability of a hotter-than-normal summer:
- over 70% probability of above-normal temperatures for July to September across most of the mainland and the Balearic Islands;
- 60–70% in the south-west and the Canary Islands.
Rainfall is harder to predict, but there is a 40–50% probability of a wetter-than-normal summer in much of the country, linked to a possible increase in stormy episodes.
What it means for the Balearics
For the islands, the forecast suggests a hot summer with the possibility of more thunderstorms than usual, particularly towards late summer when the Mediterranean is at its warmest. Warm seas can fuel intense downpours, as the islands have seen in recent autumns.
Seasonal forecasts give probabilities, not certainties, so it is worth checking Aemet’s daily forecasts and warnings, especially during heatwaves and periods of storm risk.
